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After netting nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, City forward Erling Haaland has kicked off the season in spectacular form.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a term - he registered 11 strikes in his first seven games in two seasons ago and double digits last year - it nonetheless positions him three goals ahead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it all the more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Of course, physical problems might significantly impact in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two reasons why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so soon in the campaign.

Firstly, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, equally significant, the total and standard of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Furthermore, the slow start his usual rivals for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A player's expected goals number (xG) represents how many goals a Premier League player has traditionally converted from the quantity and caliber of chances he has had.

It is not a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistical experts, but by historical Premier League data.

When examining at players' xG in the Premier League so far this term from open play, the Scandinavian attacker is getting so many more excellent scoring situations to find the net than any other player.

In fact, even if Haaland didn't excel at finishing chances than any other player in the competition, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Scoring Situation Assessment

That is demonstrated by breaking down the total and standard of chances that footballers have received in the top flight so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this season, a dozen more than every other footballer.

That is actually not that remarkable for him - he had actually taken more non-penalty shots at this stage in the last two seasons (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the previous term).

What is, however exceptional even for Haaland is the standard of scoring situations he has had this season. His shots have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that players have historically converted the attempts he's taken at a rate of 27%.

Of players to take at minimum ten attempts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to net per shot - thanks to a couple of tap-ins against West Ham and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 per shot is considerably superior than the 0.17 expected goals per attempt he had at the opening of last term.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to convert from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the beginning of last season.

Past Performance Analysis

Opening a term so impressively is, as previously stated, typical for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last campaign he had scored 10 goals - four additional compared to anyone else and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Liverpool forward who won the Golden Boot with twenty-nine strikes, seven additional compared to the City forward.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Indeed this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League season the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It is not just Salah who has started slowly either. When examining at the highest eleven attackers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the additional ten attackers put together so far.

Be it because of physical problems - multiple prominent forwards - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or simply because their clubs have faced difficulties (several proven attackers), Haaland's potential challengers in the contest for the top scorer award have not fired so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

While Haaland looks the distinct favorite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the Continental scoring award that is awarded to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's premier competitions?

That competition is far more competitive at this opening period because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in superb fashion, with 11 and nine goals respectively.

The reality Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the greatest expected goals of the trio despite not attempting any penalties makes him the likely winner.

However, because the two continental superstars are some of the most excellent finishers in European football in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the competition remains open.